Forecasting Research
COG's sports-prediction calibration exercise — probabilistic forecasts scored against real results with Brier score and log loss. Not betting: nothing here moves money or connects to a wagering platform. Predictions are only ever recorded with real, researched evidence, never auto-generated.
Brier score: 0 = perfect, 1 = worst possible — (predicted probability − actual outcome)². Lower is better. Log loss penalizes confident wrong calls more heavily. Both computed only once an event resolves against a real final score (ESPN's public scoreboard, no fabricated outcomes).
No predictions recorded yet. Predictions are added via research (human or agent), one real match at a time — never auto-generated.